Pending
Optimus V3 unveiled within a few months (mid-2026)
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people.”
/// THE ELON MUSK PREDICTION TRACKER
Everything is "two weeks" away. We started counting.
181 predictions from Elon Musk's own tweets, interviews and earnings calls — scored against reality, with receipts. 79 missed · 48 delivered · 40 goalposts moved. A robot re-checks every claim daily.
46
Still Waiting
79
Missed
48
Delivered
40
Goalposts Moved
×1.5
Elon-Time Multiplier
The Feed
EVERY CLAIM CITED TO HIS OWN WORDSPending
Pending
Optimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026
“Start of production is, we're assuming, somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.”
Pending
Owner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)
“I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able…”
Pending
Optimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
Pending
Starship fully reusable
“Unlike SpaceX's fleet of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, which are partially reusable, Musk's aim is to …”
Pending
Optimus production line 1 million units by end of 2026
“We're going to be building a million units Optimus production line, hopefully with the production start tow…”
Pending
Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
Pending
Great AI-generated game released by end of 2026
“The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year”
Pending
X becomes the everything app
“𝕏 will be the everything app. (Following rollout of encrypted chats, calls, files, and upcoming X Money)”
goalposts: 2023 → 2024 → 2025 · moved 1×
Pending
Blindsight restores limited sight to the blind in 2026
“Aiming to restore (limited) sight to the completely blind next year”
Pending
Neuralink patients beat humans at fast-reaction games soon
“It won't be long before a Neuralink recipient can beat most and eventually all humans at fast reaction vide…”
Pending
Neuralink high-volume production and automated surgery in 2026
“Neuralink will start high-volume production of brain-computer interface devices and move to a streamlined, …”
Pending
Pending
Pending
Robotaxis covering a quarter to half of the US by end of 2026
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United …”
Pending
Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
“We certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by …”
Pending
FSD v15 complete software overhaul by end of 2026
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete ov…”
Pending
Tesla Roadster production 2027
“The Roadster production version will be unveiled on April 1, 2026, and production would begin in 2027.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 → 2027 · moved 6×
Pending
AI5 chip production 2026-2027
“AI5 will begin sample and limited production in 2026, with high-volume manufacturing expected in 2027.”
Pending
Roadster 0-60 in under 1 second
“0-60mph < 1 sec. And that is the least interesting part”
Pending
Roadster 620 mile range
“The 200-kWh battery is said to provide up to 620 miles of range.”
Pending
Roadster SpaceX package with thrusters
“SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly ar…”
Pending
Pending
Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
Pending
Orbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
Pending
Pending
Humans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 → 2029 · moved 2×
Pending
First crewed Mars mission ~12 people
“First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the…”
Pending
US double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years
“Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth,…”
Pending
20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
Pending
Optimus $20-30k price point
“An Optimus robot could cost between $20,000 and $30,000, or less than a car in the long term.”
Pending
Optimus 1 million units/year in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five years, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
Pending
Restore full body functionality
“We're confident there are no physical limitations to restoring full body functionality.”
Pending
Optimus 10x production ramp each year
“If we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude …”
Pending
Optimus under $20000
“It is expected to cost much less than a car. I would say, probably less than $20,000, would be my guess.”
Pending
Thousands of Neuralink implants per year by 2030
“If all goes well, there will be hundreds of people with Neuralinks within a few years, maybe tens of thousa…”
Pending
AI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
Pending
Solar a plurality of US power within 20 years (2013)
“I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, and most likely a majority, and I…”
Pending
Pending
Superhuman abilities via Neuralink
“If you want to go cybernetic and have superintelligence and see in different wavelengths, we could absolute…”
Pending
Tesla worth 10× today's most valuable company
“a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today”
Pending
Self-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
Pending
1 million people on Mars
“SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars with one million people.”
Pending
Robovan will be produced (no timeline given)
“We’re going to make this, and it’s going to look like that.”
Pending
Pending
Fremont S/X lines become an Optimus factory making 1M robots/year
“We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Opt…”
Cancelled
Humans on Mars by 2026
“Highly confident SpaceX will land humans on Mars about six years from now. If we get lucky, maybe four years.”
goalposts: 2024 → 2026 · moved 1×
Cancelled
Starship to Mars late 2026
“Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus.”
goalposts: 2018 → 2022 → 2026 · moved 2×
Cancelled
50% chance Starship to Mars by late 2026
“I believe there is a 50 percent chance SpaceX would meet the 2026 deadline for the first mission.”
Cancelled
5 uncrewed Starships to Mars 2026
“SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then c…”
Missed
Roadster debut in a month or so (May/June 2026)
“We may be able to debut that in a month or so. It requires a lot of testing and validation before we can ac…”
Missed
Roadster production version debuts April 2026
“The next generation Roadster which we're hoping to debut in April... It's gonna be something out of this wo…”
Missed
Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks (early April 2026)
“Starship V3 first flight in about 4 weeks”
Missed
Missed
FSD approval in Europe (and maybe China) by February 2026
“We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and then maybe a simi…”
Missed
500 robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“Probably we'll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more i…”
Missed
Robotaxis in half of US population by end of 2025
“I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end …”
Missed
Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 2025
“With respect to Roadster, we've completed most of the engineering. And I think there's still some upgrades …”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 → 2024 → 2025 · moved 5×
Missed
Quadriplegics control phones faster than able-bodied by 2025
“To operate their phone faster than someone who has working hands.”
Missed
1,000+ Optimus robots in Tesla factories by 2025
“My prediction is next year we'll have over 1,000, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”
Missed
5,000 Optimus robots in 2025
“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in …”
Missed
Grok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Missed
AI smarter than any single human by end of 2025
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”
Missed
Genuinely useful Optimus robots inside Tesla in 2025
“Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, ho…”
Missed
Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 (We, Robot)
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the …”
Missed
FSD price will keep increasing
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regula…”
Missed
Tesla Semi volume production 2024
“We're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.”
goalposts: 2019 → 2020 → 2022 → 2024 → 2025 · moved 3×
Missed
Humans on Mars by 2024
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
Missed
HW3 sufficient for FSD
“April 22nd, 2019. Elon Musk mentioned that all Tesla vehicles had the hardware necessary for Full Self Driv…”
Missed
Four BFR ships to Mars in 2024, two carrying crew
“The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years... So then in 2024, we want to try to fly fo…”
Missed
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 2023
“Assuming 2022 is not mega drama, new Roadster should ship in 2023.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 → 2023 · moved 3×
Missed
Optimus production ready by 2023
“I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus hopefully next year.”
Missed
$25,000 fully autonomous Tesla in ~3 years (Battery Day)
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 2022
“Finishing engineering this year, production starts next year. Aiming to have release candidate design driva…”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → 2022 · moved 2×
Missed
Optimus doing factory tasks by 2022
“Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, would be operational in factories by 2022.”
Missed
Tesla Network car sharing before robotaxi
“Probably will make sense to enable car sharing in advance of the robotaxi fleet, because the car sharing ca…”
Missed
Missed
Two BFR cargo ships land on Mars in 2022 (IAC 2017)
“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational... I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship an…”
Missed
'Shocked if we do not achieve FSD safer than human' in 2022
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.”
Missed
'Highly confident' Starship reaches orbit in 2022
“I feel at this point highly confident that we'll get to orbit this year.”
Missed
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 12-18 months (mid-late 2021)
“Tesla plans to tentatively build the Roadster in California and production would be in the next 12 to 18 mo…”
goalposts: 2020 → mid-2021 · moved 1×
Missed
Starship orbital 2021
“Now SpaceX expects its first orbital flight test won't happen until 2021.”
goalposts: Mar 2020 → 2021 · moved 1×
Missed
Human trials by late 2021
“Neuralink is working super hard to ensure implant safety & is in close communication with the FDA. If thing…”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 · moved 1×
Missed
4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
Cancelled
Chicago O'Hare Loop running in 18-24 months (2018)
“Aspirationally, it would be within 18 to 24 months, but I would say it's very unlikely to be more than thre…”
Missed
Cars with no steering wheel/pedals in 2 years (2021)
“Probably 2 years from now, we'll make a car that has no steering wheels or pedals.”
Missed
Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”
Missed
Autonomous robotaxis in 2020
“I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all …”
Missed
Level 5 autonomy complete by end of 2020
“I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will h…”
Missed
Robotaxi functionality in 2020
“[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.”
Missed
FSD reliable enough for no attention by end of 2020
“Full self-driving reliable enough that you do not need to pay attention, in our opinion, won't be available…”
Missed
Tesla Roadster production 2020
“Musk floated a starting price of $200,000, indicating that delivery would start by the year 2020.”
Missed
Human trials by 2020
“Neuralink is looking to start trials on humans next year.”
Cancelled
Hyperloop operational in a few years (2013)
“Musk proposed the Hyperloop would be operational in just a few years.”
Cancelled
LA-SF Hyperloop trip in 35 minutes (2013)
“The total one-way trip time is 35 minutes from county line to county line.”
Missed
Robotaxi $30k/year income for owners
“Each Tesla could generate $30,000 in gross income for owners each year if operated as a robotaxi.”
Missed
FSD feature complete in a few months
“It's looking like we might be feature-complete in a few months. The feature-complete just means like it has…”
Missed
Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
Missed
1 million robotaxis on roads by 2020
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'…”
Missed
Starship orbital by March 2020
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
Missed
Full Self-Driving feature complete by end of 2019
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
Missed
Tesla Semi production in 2019
“Elon Musk first unveiled the Tesla Semi in 2017 with a promised 2019 launch.”
Missed
Year of the solar roof 2019
“This is definitely going to be the year of the solar roof and PowerWall.”
Missed
500,000 cars in 2019
“Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019”
Missed
Missed
Uncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
Missed
Space tourism around Moon by 2018
“We are excited to announce that SpaceX has been approached to fly two private citizens on a trip around the…”
Missed
Autonomy 'a solved problem' — 'there in a few years' (2015)
“I almost view it as like a solved problem. We know exactly what to do, and we'll be there in a few years.”
Missed
'Machine that builds the machine' v1.0 in 2018
“A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold…”
Missed
First full self-driving features in V9 (August 2018)
“That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of…”
Missed
LA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
Missed
20,000 Model 3s per month by December 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
Missed
Tesla 'urban transport' bus unveiled in 2017
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Missed
80-90% odds a Falcon 9 lands and reflies within a year (2014)
“It's probably maybe not more than a fifty percent chance or less of landing it on the platform for the firs…”
Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
Missed
Model X volume production in Q2 2015
“And of course it'll have a dual motor all-wheel drive, and we expect to start to reach volume production in…”
Missed
Battery swap stations across Tesla network (2013)
“The only decision you need to make when you come to one of our Tesla stations is, do you prefer faster or f…”
Missed
Taking Tesla private at $420 — funding secured (2018)
“Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”
Missed
Solar roof will cost less than a normal roof (2016)
“It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even t…”
Missed
'Solid metal snake' auto-charger for Tesla cars (2014)
“Btw, we are actually working on a charger that automatically moves out from the wall & connects like a soli…”
Cancelled
NY-DC Hyperloop with 'verbal govt approval' (2017)
“Just received verbal govt approval for The Boring Company to build an underground NY-Phil-Balt-DC Hyperloop…”
Missed
Add your Tesla to a shared fleet with one tap (2016)
“You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone…”
Delivered
Delivered · Late
Driverless robotaxis in Austin by end of 2025
“We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”
Delivered
Model S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next …”
Delivered
Partial
Cybercab mass production Q2 2026
“The single biggest expansion in production will be the Cybercab, which starts production in Q2 next year.”
Partial
X Money launches soon
“𝕏 just rolled out an entire new communications stack... 𝕏 Money comes out soon.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
Delivered
Cybercab in production before 2027 (We, Robot)
“Musk said he expects the Cybercab to be in production 'probably in 2026' — 'I tend to be a little optimisti…”
Partial
Driverless robotaxis in 3 weeks (from Dec 2025)
“There will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them, not even anyone in the passenger sea…”
Partial
Banish feature (auto-parking after dropoff) in near future
“In the near future, your Tesla will drop you off at the store entrance and then go find a parking spot.”
Delivered · Late
New FSD model with 10x parameters (2025)
“Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss. Probabl…”
Delivered
Cars deliver themselves from factory
“First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.”
Partial
Delivered · Late
Grok 3 by end of 2024
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
Delivered · Late
Delivered
Optimus performing factory tasks 2024
“Optimus is already performing tasks in our factory.”
Delivered
Grok 2 comes out in August 2024
“Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes…”
Delivered
Delivered · Late
Delivered · Late
Human trials in 6 months (mid-2023)
“We've submitted, I think, most of our paperwork to the FDA, and we think probably in about six months we sh…”
goalposts: 2020 → 2021 → mid-2023 → 2024 · moved 2×
Delivered
First human implant 2024
“The first human received an implant from @Neuralink yesterday and is recovering well. Initial results show …”
Delivered · Late
Starlink V2 direct-to-phone launching in 2023
“Starlink V2, launching next year, will transmit direct to mobile phones, eliminating dead zones worldwide”
Delivered · Late
Cybertruck production late 2021
“The company anticipates that production of the lower-priced Cybertrucks should begin in late 2021 with the …”
goalposts: 2021 → 2022 → late 2022 → 2023 · moved 3×
Delivered · Late
Cybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 · moved 2×
Delivered
Cybertruck bulletproof
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”
Delivered · Late
Creator ad revenue sharing 'starting today' (Feb 2023)
“Starting today, Twitter will share ad revenue with creators for ads that appear in their reply threads”
Delivered · Late
Global Starlink coverage by end of 2021
“Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.”
Delivered
Semi 500 mile range
“That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph. That is the worst case scen…”
Delivered
FSD wide release Nov 2022
“Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta is now available to anyone in North America who requests it from the car scree…”
Delivered
Optimus prototype by 2022
“We're also good at sensors and batteries and we'll probably have a prototype next year that looks like this.”
Delivered · Late
Giga Berlin and Giga Texas start production in 2021
“We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.”
Delivered · Late
FSD subscription released early 2021
“Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.”
Delivered
Tesla matches Apple's $700B market cap by 2025
“If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we're able to maintain a 50 perce…”
Delivered · Late
SpaceX puts first astronauts in space within ~3 years (2011)
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
Delivered
Model Y production early 2020
“Tesla's Model Y would not enter production for another two years and two months.”
Delivered
Shanghai Gigafactory: built by summer, cars by end of 2019
“Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume…”
Delivered · Late
Tesla insurance launches 'in about a month' (April 2019)
“The answer is, yes, we are creating a Tesla insurance product and we hope to launch that in about a month.”
Partial
$25,000 Tesla by 2019
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also …”
Delivered
Tesla profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 2018
“The Economist used to be boring, but smart with a wicked dry wit. Now it's just boring (sigh). Tesla will b…”
Delivered · Late
Model 3 5,000/week by Dec 2017
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec”
Delivered
Model 3 5000/week by end of Q2 2018
“As for Model 3 production, we continue to make significant progress every day, and we're targeting a weekly…”
Delivered · Late
Delivered
Australia's big battery in 100 days or it's free
“Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That seriou…”
Delivered
Tesla Semi unveiled in 2017 (Master Plan, Part Deux)
“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks a…”
Partial
Supercharging free for Model S buyers, forever (2013)
“At Tesla we developed something called a Supercharging technology, and we're offering that if you buy a Mod…”
Partial
$3,500 Powerwall starts shipping in 3-4 months (2015)
“The cost of this is $3,500... You can order the Powerwall right now on the Tesla website, and we're going t…”
Delivered · Late
Model X production end of 2013, bulk production in 2014
“We'll start production towards the end of next year, probably deliver a few units, and then bulk production…”
Delivered · Late
Drive LA to New York on Superchargers by end of 2013
“By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive from L.A. to New York just using the Supercharger network,…”
Delivered
Model S deliveries start no later than July 2012
“We're going to be starting deliveries no later than July of this year.”
Disputed
Cybertruck can cross rivers, lakes, seas
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas …”
Disputed
FSD supervised safer than human drivers
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12…”
Disputed
Autopilot 40% safer
“Report highlight: “The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Auto…”
Disputed
Buying non-Tesla is like buying a horse
“It is financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla. If you buy a car that does not have the hardwa…”
Disputed
LiDAR is a fool's errand
“LiDAR is a fool's errand. Anyone relying on LiDAR is doomed.”
Disputed
Optimus robots at We Robot event were autonomous
“Optimus robots were on display for audience members to interact with.”
Disputed
Over 1 billion real people with X accounts
“Exactly. Also, if you count total real people with X accounts, including those who only check in during maj…”
Disputed
Twitter is 20%+ fake/spam accounts (2022)
“20% fake/spam accounts, while 4 times what Twitter claims, could be *much* higher. My offer was based on Tw…”
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